Estimation of Demand for Urban Land Uses: A Case Study of Türkiye

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Ustaoglu E.

Kent Akademisi (Online), vol.17, no.2, pp.626-650, 2024 (Peer-Reviewed Journal) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 17 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2024
  • Doi Number: 10.35674/kent.1339840
  • Journal Name: Kent Akademisi (Online)
  • Journal Indexes: TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.626-650
  • Abdullah Gül University Affiliated: Yes


Over the past few decades, urbanisation has rapidly developed in various locations. While the urban landscape has changed dramatically as a result of rapid urbanisation, academics have also noted an increase in congestion, pollution in metropolitan areas, a reduction in public services, and aging infrastructure. These indicate that land use change can have adverse impact on society and environment and therefore it puts enormous pressure on governments. To be sustainable, the resources that can be used for development must be identified, together with their restrictions, as well as the natural elements and constraints that must be maintained or sustained for the correct functioning of ecosystems. Therefore, accurate estimates of future urban expansion are essential for sustainable growth and the preservation of the environment. While the UN advice utilising the SDG indicator 11.3.1 “the ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate” to estimate and predict the sustainability of urbanisation, there are still insufficient accurate projections and useful evaluations available at the city level, particularly with regard to future urban expansion. The main obstacle to informing the realisation of urban sustainable development goals under the framework of SDGs has been the limited understanding of the dynamics of the urbanisation sustainability in the next decades. This article examines the land use changes for urban uses, and further applies different methods for the projection of residential and industrial/commercial land uses in the selected case study area i.e. NUTS3 (nomenclature of terrestrial units for statistics) regions of Turkey which demonstrate a city level analysis. Density measures, trend extrapolation and regression analysis are the subject statistical methods used for projecting the land use. The findings show that using the chosen methodologies to project past changes leads in significant uncertainty. Linear regression estimated the highest residential land use values for east, north and west; density measure estimated the highest values for north-west and south regions. Regarding the industrial/commercial land use demand, highest values were projected by linear regression method for east and north, by linear trend extrapolation method for north-west, south, and west regions. The results are significantly influenced by the variation in selected variables, and spatial organization of the study region. Therefore, validation analysis as a future research focus will be essential to select the most appropriate model that can be used to project the land use changes in Turkey. The results from the current analysis can be adopted by the government and local authorities for the land management and sustainable growth of urban land use in the Turkish regional context.